Evaluación del efecto barrera de las vías de transporte andaluzas al desplazamiento de la fauna como respuesta al cambio climático

Se evaluó el posible efecto barrera de las infraestructuras viarias de Andalucía al desplazamiento de las distribuciones futuras que previsiblemente tendrán que efectuar 20 especies amenazadas de tetrápodos no voladores para responder al cambio climático. Para elaborar los modelos ambientales se usó la función de favorabilidad y se consideraron dos modelos de circulación (CGCM2 y ECHAM4) y dos escenarios de emisiones (A2 y B2). Solo se ha predicho un desplazamiento de las áreas favorables en el futuro para Salamandra salamandra. La favorabilidad ambiental de S. salamandra se verá reducida en la mitad occidental, mientras que en el cuadrante nororiental se incrementará. El posible efecto barrera de las infraestructuras viarias para esta especie se evaluó teniendo en cuenta el posible flujo entre áreas separadas por ellas. Salamandra salamandra morenica tendrá que superar las barreras de la línea férrea Córdoba–Almorchón y del Ave Sevilla-Córdoba-Madrid para alcanzar las zonas más favorables situadas en el cuadrante nororiental.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Posibles cambios en las áreas favirables para los aguiluchos cenizo y pálido en españa de acuerdo a escenarios de cambio climático

[EN]: We modelled the distribution of Montagu’s harrier Circus pygargus and hen harrier Circus cyaneus in Spain under current conditions. Current favourability for Montagu’s harrier was highest throughout Western Spain, whilst for hen harrier it was concentrated in the Northern half of Spain. We also calculated their future climatic favourability according to two climate scenarios. Both forecast a contraction of the favourable areas for both species during future periods. Specifically, the model for the Montagu’s harrier forecast that high favourability areas will be concentrated in Castilla y León, and in the case of hen harriers in the Northern mountain areas of Spain.[ES]: Se ha modelado la distribución de los aguiluchos cenizo Circus pygargus y pálido Circus cyaneus en España según las condiciones ambientales actuales. Las áreas más favorables para el aguilucho cenizo se sitúan en el oeste de España, mientras que las del aguilucho pálido se concentran en la mitad norte de España. También se calculó su favorabilidad climática futura según dos escenarios climáticos. Ambos pronostican una reducción de las áreas favorables para ambas especies en periodos futuros. Concretamente, las zonas favorables para el aguilucho cenizo estarán concentradas en Castilla y León, y las del aguilucho pálido en las áreas más montañosas del norte de España.A. Estrada has a postdoctoral contract jointly financed by the European Social Fund and by the Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha (Spain), in the framework of the Operational Programme FSE 2007-2013. This work was partially financed by the project CGL2009-11316 (I+D project, Subprogramme BOS) funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (Spain) and FEDER.Peer Reviewe

The biogeographic basis of Ebola-virus disease outbreaks: A model for other zoonotic diseases?

We first determined the differential role of favorability of environmental conditions and mammalian chorotypes in explaining the presence of the Ebola virus in Africa. We then combined environmental factors and chorotypes using fuzzy logic, which better explained the distribution of Ebola virus. The core area for the virus was associated with human infections of known animal origin, with infections of unknown source detected in areas that are biogeographically more peripheral. Variation in the environmental favorability for disease outbreaks may be monitored using indices of macroclimatic oscillations. This may provide the basis for an early warning system based on the variation in macroclimatic indices and the locations where human contact with multiple animal species tend to occur. We propose to study the biogeography of zoonoses by: 1) determining the potential spatial distribution of these diseases, according to environmental factors and the biogeographic structure of animals linked to the zoonosis cycle; 2) search for relationships between disease outbreaks and global atmospheric oscillations to forecast periods of higher risk of emergence of the infectious diseases.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Measuring the extent of the encroaching into Europe of African species due to climate change

Comunicación presentada a un CongresoThe recent modification of species distributions in response to a warmer climate constitutes a major and generalized biogeographic change. One of the main drivers of the change in species distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favorability. The various approaches to the species distribution modelling assume an equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, and this hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we have studied the response to climate change of 10 African bird species in the context of the Strait of Gibraltar, where a short-distance expansion of the species’ range towards the north means a major step in biogeographical terms, since the Strait is an important barrier separating North African and European fauna. All studied species have already been observed during the last decade in Spain, in some cases sporadically, in others regularly and in some others, it has even been possible to confirm the reproduction of the species in Europe; some examples of the latter case are the Long-legged Buzzard, the Little Swift and the Common Bulbul. We have also identified those areas of Southern Europe that are climatically favorable for the breeding of the set of selected African species for the period 2041-2060, which shows that southern Spain is a potential focal point for the colonization of Europe by African species. If our climate continues to warm, further arrivals of potential colonist African bird species to southern Europe are to be expected.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Fuzzy logic is a helpful conceptual and operational tool for modelling the geography of ecological interactions

Fuzzy logic is a form of many-valued logic whose variables have a truth value that varies in degree. Spatial favourability for species occurrence may be considered a fuzzy concept, as historical, geographical, human, and environmental conditions make locations more or less favourable for the occurrence of particular species. The favourability function was conceptually conceived to define spatial favourability in a fuzzy gradient from 0 to 1, so facilitating the application of fuzzy logic to spatial modelling. Favourability values derived from the favourability function have the same meaning and the same mathematical value regardless the prevalence of the species, so enabling direct comparison of models built for different species and their combination using fuzzy logic operators. This characteristics make the favourability function particularly useful in the spatial modelling of ecologically interacting species. In particular, the fuzzy intersection of favourability for different species is useful to model the biogeographical consequences of different degrees of competition between species. Fuzzy logic operations allow also to combine autoecological and sinecological responses in a way that may account for the existence of parapatric distributions in current and future environments, as exemplified by hare species in Europe. Fuzzy logic may provide biogeographical modellers with the necessary flexibility in concepts and operational tools to deal with a highly unstable and intertwined biogeographical world.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

Metapopulation Patterns of Iberian Butterflies Revealed by Fuzzy Logic

Metapopulation theory considers that the populations of many species are fragmented into patches connected by the migration of individuals through an interterritorial matrix. We applied fuzzy set theory and environmental favorability (F) functions to reveal the metapopulational structure of the 222 butterfly species in the Iberian Peninsula. We used the sets of contiguous grid cells with high favorability (F ≥ 0.8), to identify the favorable patches for each species. We superimposed the known occurrence data to reveal the occupied and empty favorable patches, as unoccupied patches are functional in a metapopulation dynamics analysis. We analyzed the connectivity between patches of each metapopulation by focusing on the territory of intermediate and low favorability for the species (F < 0.8). The friction that each cell opposes to the passage of individuals was computed as 1‐F. We used the r.cost function of QGIS to calculate the cost of reaching each cell from a favorable patch. The inverse of the cost was computed as connectivity. Only 126 species can be considered to have a metapopulation structure. These metapopulation structures are part of the dark biodiversity of butterflies because their identification is not evident from the observation of the occurrence data but was revealed using favorability functionsFunding for open access charge: Universidad de Málaga / CBU

Differential age-related phenology in lesser black-backed gull Larus fuscus wintering in the Malaga area

[EN]: We aimed to identify the existence of age-classes groups that shared similar seasonal patterns in migration movements for the lesser black-backed gull Larus fuscus. The gull age-classes groups were defined as sets of age-classes that were present in the harbour of Malaga (South of Spain) simultaneously during the wintering season. We distinguished ten groups of age-classes, which can be subsequently lumped into four big age-class groups: (i) immature stage-class, (ii) young breeders, (iii) age-classes from 6 to 11 years old, and (iv) age-classes older than 11 years old. Our present results supported the 'dominance and arrival time model'.[ES]: Se pretendía identificar la existencia de grupos de clases de edad con un patrón estacional similar en la gaviota sombría Larus fuscus. Los grupos se definieron como conjuntos de clases de edad que estuvieron presentes de forma simultánea siguiendo un mismo patrón temporal en el puerto de Málaga durante la temporada de invernada. Se distinguieron diez grupos de clases de edad, los cuales a su vez pueden agruparse en cuatro grandes grupos: (i) inmaduros, (ii) jóvenes reproductores, (iii) clases de edad de 6 a 11 años y (iv) clases de aves mayores de 11 años. Nuestros resultados apoyan la teoría de la ‘posición dominante y el modelo de la hora de llegada’.This study was partially funded by the project CGL2009-11316 (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spain, and FEDER).A. Estrada has a postdoctoral contract jointly financed by the European Social Fund and by the Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha (Spain), in the framework of the Operational Programme FSE 2007-2013.Peer Reviewe

¿Cómo de favorable es el sur de Europa para el establecimiento del Escribano Sahariano?

La modificación reciente de las áreas de distribución de las especies, como respuesta a un clima más cálido, constituye un desafío actual para la biogeografía. Este estudio pretende analizar la respuesta al cambio climático de una especie típicamente africana que comienza a observarse en el continente europeo: el escribano sahariano (Emberiza sahari). Para ello se han realizado modelos de favorabilidad, tanto para el presente como para el futuro, usando el área actual de distribución de la especie y un conjunto de variables ambientales. Los resultados muestran zonas con alta favorabilidad en el sur de Europa para la especie, en las que aún está ausente. Esto indica que dichas zonas muestran unas condiciones climáticas adecuadas para el establecimiento de esta en un futuro próximo, pudiendo ser las zonas de colonización del continente europeo.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

Parapatric species and the use of fuzzy logic to study biotic interactions: a case study on vipers in the Iberian Peninsula

The Iberian Peninsula is inhabited by three viper species (genus Vipera) that show parapatric distributions: the Euro-Siberian V. seoanei in the North, and the two Mediterranean, V. aspis in the North-east, and V. latastei in most of Iberia. Environmental factors have strong influence in their distribution; however, interactions between species may be also an important driver of species distributions at contact zones. The aim of this work is to identify the favourability of the Iberian Peninsula for the three vipers, giving special importance to those regions simultaneously high favourable for two or the three species (coexistence), simultaneously unfavourable for them (autoecologic segregation), and also those areas where one of the vipers has high favourability whereas the other has intermediate values (likely caused by competition). The favourability models were built under the fuzzy logic as this method may help to understand the species’ relationship taking into account coexistence and competition processes. We used a presence/absence dataset in UTM 10x10km grid cells and a set of spatial and environmental variables (topographic, climatic, human activity and land uses) to develop models of current favorability for the three species. Then we used fuzzy logic to compare species-specific favourabilities with the shared two by two favourabilities. The results suggested that the environment has a strong predictive power in the distribution of the vipers, but the potential interactions between them may be also decisive for their presence or absence in specific areas of the Iberian Peninsula. It is remarkable that V. aspis and V. seoanei seemed better competitors than V. latastei, probably as they were better adapted to northern humid conditions. Although we identified some areas of coexistence, the contact zones are exclusion areas where one species may affect the others. More research is necessary to understand these parapatric distributions by including interactions with other snakes and their prey, as well as their potential evolution under the present-future situation of climate change.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech